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General Election 2005: Introducing Generation Jones: voters who hold

John Rentoul

Alastair Campbell is a member. So is Alan Milburn. But Peter Mandelson and Tony Blair are out. Meet the Jones Generation. They decided the US election for George Bush, now they have Britain's political future in their hands. New research published for the first time by The Independent on Sunday today suggests that the election will be decided by people born between 1954 and 1965.

Too young to be baby boomers, too old to know how to download a ringtone, they are Generation Jones " the name comes from American slang, jonesing, meaning yearning. Now aged between 39 and 51, they were brought up to believe they could have it all, but found that they couldn't.

The term was invented by Jonathan Pontell, a US social commentator who explains that, 'as children in the Sixties, Jonesers thought they had a bright future not just in terms of material progress but of personal fulfilment " as we grew older the economy soured and we were left with an unrequited, 'jonesing' quality'.

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They have two defining features: they tend to have more money, being at the peak of their career earnings; and they are 'persuadable', because they are not as fixed in their preferences as older people. That combination is a magic formula for the marketing industry.

In last year's presidential election, the polling company Mason- Dixon reported that Generation Jones was pivotal in deciding between Mr Bush and John Kerry. It was the only age group " Joneser women especially " that switched back and forth between the candidates during the campaign before plumping for Mr Bush. What makes Jonesers attractive to the marketing industry also makes them important to political campaigns: they are more likely to turn out than younger age groups, and are less fixed in their political preferences than their elders.

The concept was imported here last year by the media agency Carat with the launch of 'Project Britain', a research programme to map the nation's attitudes and habits. Last month, it was extended to include an analysis of the political characteristics of different age groups.

Andrew Hawkins, chief executive of CommunicateResearch, which carried out the study, said that what marked out Generation Jones was 'the potentially explosive combination of strong likelihood to vote with the propensity to change their mind between now and election day'.

The research finds that 55 per cent of this age group say they are 'absolutely certain to vote', compared with 66 per cent of the war generation, 54 per cent of baby boomers " and only 39 and 15 per cent of Generations X and Y. What is more, Jonesers are more likely than older groups to say that they 'may well change' their minds about how they will vote before election day. One in three Jonesers may change or describe themselves as a 'floating voter'. While higher proportions of younger people are changeable, they are also less likely to vote.

John Coll, Carat's strategy director, warns politicians that Generation Jones is 'capable of springing a surprise. From what we know of their behaviour as consumers, the parties cannot rely on tradition or brand loyalty with this group " they're open to new ideas.' He cites the massive take-up of iPods among over-40s as an example of this " 'they picked up on marketing that was not aimed at them'.

The Carat survey also reveals the political priorities of Generation Jones that mark it out. As with all other age groups except the youngest, Jonesers are most likely to name the NHS when asked which three issues are 'most important in determining which way you'll vote in the forthcoming election'. After health, taxation is more of an issue for them than for any other group. This is the age group under most financial pressure, having to provide for children and worry about their own retirement. And because they mostly have children, they tend to attach as much importance to education as younger generations. The findings suggest that the issues the Conservatives have made their own " immigration and crime " do not have much resonance with the age group that counts in the election.

But Mr Pontell warns that Mr Blair needs to be wary. This generation has had its expectations dashed before. 'A lot of Jonesers react with a stronger edge when their cynicism is aroused.'

Carat commissioned CommunicateResearch, a member of the British Polling Council, to interview a random sample of 1,010 adults by telephone on 24 and 25 March. The results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. Details at www.

WORRIED ABOUT CIVIL LIBERTIES

'I would never vote Tory'

Dr Evan Jones, 39, history lecturer at the University of Bristol. He and his wife, Emma, have two children " Bryn, two, and Catrin, three weeks.

Constituency: Bristol West

Labour majority of 4,426; Liberal Democrat target

'I am a floating voter but I'd never vote Tory,' says Dr Jones. 'I like the stand the Lib Dems are taking on civil liberties. The whole idea of suspending habeas corpus is outrageous. The biggest negative I have with the Government is their authoritarian streak. I was ambivalent about the war. There wasn't any secret plan where Blair knew there weren't any WMD but went to war all the same. But I'm unhappy with the way they misrepresented the intelligence.'

His wife, Emma, 37, is similarly undecided. 'I feel slightly apathetic about all three parties,' she says. 'I'm inclined to vote Labour, but I still haven't made my mind up.'

WORRIED ABOUT STUDENT DEBT

'They're good on economy'

Julie Ann Jones, 40, an administrator for Age Concern in Selby, North Yorkshire, and husband Mel, 49, a production editor, have two sons, Richard, 11, and Adam, seven.

Constituency: Selby

Labour majority of 2,138; Conservative target

'I grew up under the Thatcher government and opposed everything they stood for,' Mrs Jones says. 'If I thought the Lib Dems could win the seat I would vote for them. But I've got to consider that not voting Labour might let the Tories in.'

Mr Jones says: 'I haven't made up my mind yet. The economy is the one area Labour have come out on top ... Tuition fees is a big issue though. In seven years' time, Adam will be going to university. He will come out with debts of pounds 30,000 which is just horrible. It is such a deterrent to working-class families.'

TALKING 'BOUT MY GENERATION

A new way of dividing voters is by influences on their upbringing

Generation Y

Age 18-27

Born 1978-87

TV Beverley Hills 90210, Only Fools and Horses, The X Files

Film Titanic, Men in Black, The Sixth Sense

Singles 'Parklife' (Blur), 'Millennium' (Robbie Williams), 'Praise You' (Fatboy Slim)

Generation X

Age 27-39

Born 1966-77

TV Baywatch, The A Team, Neighbours

Film Back to the Future, Top Gun, Rain Man

Singles 'I Don't Like Mondays' (Boomtown Rats), 'Eye of the Tiger' (Survivor), 'Down Under' (Men at Work)

Generation Jones

Age 39-51

Born 1954-65

TV Grange Hill, The Professionals, The Krypton Factor

Film Star Wars, Alien, Saturday Night Fever

Singles 'No More Heroes' (the Stranglers), 'Video Killed the Radio Star' (the Buggles), 'Ghost Town' (the Specials)

Baby boomers

Age 51-60

Born 1945-53

TV The Prisoner, The Avengers, The Saint

Film The Sound of Music, The Graduate, Goldfinger

Singles 'Green Green Grass of Home' (Tom Jones), 'Yellow Submarine' (the Beatles), 'These Boots Were Made for Walking' (Nancy Sinatra)

War generation

Age 60+

Born before 1945

TV the pictures were better on radio

Film The Bank Dick, Fantasia, Grapes of Wrath

Singles 'Chatanooga Choo Choo', 'String of Pearls' (Glenn Miller), 'White Christmas' (Bing Crosby)

 
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